Florida’s final hours of early voting bring a striking split in the numbers: Democrats are turning out at a higher rate than Republicans in almost every county, but Republicans still account for a slightly larger share of ballots cast statewide.
That distinction matters on the eve of Election Day. The headline statistic is about what share of each party’s registered voters have voted, not which party has cast the most ballots, and certainly not how those ballots were marked.
A Friday analysis by WFTV found that about 36% of registered Democrats statewide had voted, compared with about 27% of registered Republicans. Democrats had the higher participation rate in 65 of Florida’s 67 counties, the analysis found. Those percentages measure turnout within each party’s voter pool.
Voters at a Miami-Dade early-voting site on Oct. 19. Photo: Marta Lavandier/AP, via WLRN.
What the turnout figures do, and don’t, show
More than 4.4 million Floridians had cast ballots by Friday afternoon, Oct. 30, according to the UF Election Lab figures cited by Florida Phoenix and Florida Press. In that Friday snapshot, registered Republicans accounted for 40.4% of ballots and Democrats 38.4%; voters with no party affiliation or a minor-party registration made up the remainder.
The UF tracker’s Florida page also displays a later-updated Oct. 30 snapshot with a slightly different split: 40.6% Republican and 38.1% Democratic, out of 4.72 million ballots. Differences between snapshots reflect update timing and the underlying reports. The tracker cautions that party-registration figures describe voters’ registrations, not their choices on the ballot.
By Sunday morning, Florida had passed 4.9 million ballots cast, according to the UF Election Lab tracker as reported by Florida Phoenix and Florida Press. Those totals are changing as election offices update their reports; they are not a final count.
So Democrats’ higher turnout rate does not mean they lead in raw ballots statewide. Florida has a larger Republican registration base. At the Oct. 5 book closing, the state had roughly 5.69 million registered Republicans, 4.15 million Democrats and 3.35 million voters with no party affiliation, according to Florida Politics.
There is another important distinction when comparing this year with 2022. UF Election Lab data show Republicans finished early voting that year with about 51% of ballots, while Democrats were just under 30%. Those figures describe each party’s share of ballots, not the share of its registered voters who turned out. They should not be directly compared with this year’s 36%-to-27% turnout-rate figures as if they measured the same thing.
Mail and in-person voting tell different stories
The method of voting helps explain why the picture can look different depending on which numbers are being compared. In a Florida Politics snapshot from Oct. 27, Democrats led in returned mail ballots: 643,143 to 529,943 for Republicans. Republicans led in in-person early voting, 727,255 to 601,289.
The UF Election Lab’s Florida tracker showed more than 2.88 million in-person early votes by its Oct. 30 update, already above the just-under-2.3-million in-person early-voting total recorded in 2022, according to the comparisons reported by Florida Press. That number, too, depends on the snapshot: the tracker says some county websites may report more recent or higher figures than the state Division of Elections.
A voter receives a ballot at a Miami-Dade early-voting site. Photo: Marta Lavandier/AP, via WLRN.
Republican strategists say the remaining votes could shift the balance. Anthony Pedicini told Florida Phoenix that “Democrats have already cashed their chips,” adding that “Republican super-voters show up on Election Day.” Republicans have relied on Election Day turnout in recent cycles, and University of Central Florida political-science professor Aubrey Jewett told WCTV that the party’s registration advantage remains a significant factor if Republicans turn out at an average rate.
Gov. Ron DeSantis has also raised concerns about Republican turnout. Florida Phoenix reported that, as of Friday morning, registered Republicans led Democrats by just 468 ballots in Polk County, despite a substantial GOP registration advantage there. In Hillsborough County, Democrats held an 18,312-ballot lead as of Thursday afternoon, even though Republicans had overtaken Democrats in county registration. Those are time-stamped snapshots, not final totals.
DeSantis contrasted this year with his 2022 reelection campaign, saying supporters then would have walked barefoot over hot coals to vote. “Just a different time,” he said this week, according to Florida Phoenix.
What South Florida’s counts show
Unofficial county and state tracker figures through early Sunday put ballots cast at 485,758 in Miami-Dade and 415,666 in Broward. These are countywide totals reported in the trackers, not the final Election Day totals.
As of Oct. 31, Broward had received 129,421 vote-by-mail ballots. Miami-Dade had received 171,845, with 80,988 still outstanding in the county’s morning report, according to Majority Analytics and county reports. Returned mail ballots are one part of the broader turnout picture; they do not include all in-person voting.
Voters collect ballots during early voting in Miami. Photo: Marta Lavandier/AP, via WLRN.
What happens next
Early voting ends at 7 p.m. tonight, Sunday, Nov. 1, in Miami-Dade, at 28 sites, and in Broward, which lists 30 sites. On Tuesday, Nov. 3, polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.; voters must go to their assigned precinct and bring photo identification with a signature.
Completed mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. Tuesday; a postmark is not enough. After early voting ends, voters can take a mail ballot to a supervisor of elections office or, if voting in person on Election Day, surrender it at their assigned precinct. For more on mail-ballot deadlines, see the Miami-Dade Elections guidance.
The statewide ballot includes three proposed constitutional amendments. Amendment 3 would increase the homestead exemption for non-school property taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, subject to the measure’s terms. Miami voters will also decide on a $450 million public-safety bond referendum, a Virginia Key marina lease referendum and six city charter questions. Miami-Dade voters face county charter questions and a school-tax renewal.
At the top of the statewide ballot are the governor’s race between Donalds and Jolly and the Senate contest between Moody and Nixon; recent polls have shown competitive races. But the turnout figures alone do not settle either contest. The number to watch on Tuesday is not just how many people voted early, but who joins them, and whether the higher Democratic participation rate holds as Election Day ballots are counted.
For continuing local updates, see the South Florida Digest news section.
